Breaking News: Romney Takes the Lead
For the first time since April, Romney has taken the lead in election polls. Until last week’s debate, the former Massachusetts governor was trailing President Obama by a few points.
According to the RCP Average, Romney leads Obama by 1.5%. The RCP Average is a “poll of polls” which includes Fox, CNN, Rasmussen, Gallup and other major polls. Their average is respected in Washington as it cancels out the left and right leaning tendencies of the pollsters.
The US election isn’t about the popular vote, it’s about winning states.
RCP has moved a number of states from the Obama side to “toss up”. States like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are now up for grabs. Distinguished political scientist Larry Sabato has moved Florida (worth 29 electoral votes) to the Romney side.
The election is far from over – and the only poll that counts is the one on election day. Romney has a steep cliff to climb.
Obama took Virginia and North Carolina in 2008 – two gems of the South. It is hard to imagine Romney (or any Republican) winning an election without taking the South.
For Romney to win, he will have to win most of the toss up states. From Florida to Virginia to Ohio (which has moved in Obama’s direction), Romney will need to clean up on election day if he is to win.
The race for the White House is getting interesting – stay tuned!