Obama’s Speech Caused Major Shift in EU Referendum Betting
Following Barak Obama’s intervention in Britain’s EU Referendum at the beginning of the week bookmakers’ odds have moved sharply towards Britain voting to remain in the European Union.
Ladbrokes said that the chances of a Brexit sharply diminished and said that 90% of all bets placed following Obama’s intervention were for Remain. As a result the odds are now 2/7 for Stay and 11/4 for leave.
A spokesman for the bookmaker said that it is the biggest betting shift of the campaign so far. Speeches by London Mayor Boris Johnson and Prime Minister David Cameron together with reports from the treasury hardly changed the betting patterns but Obama’s speech had an immediate impact.
Betway reported a similar phenomenon and changed its odds for Remain from 4/9 to 4/11. However, the bookmaker also has some of the shortest odds available on Leave at 9/4 whereas most bookies are offering odds around 3/1 on Leave.
The shift to 3/1 for Leave is extremely dramatic considering that just a week ago the odds on leave were at 7/4 at the majority of bookmakers. In other words, the bookmakers now think that there is roughly a 75% chance of Britain voting to remain part of the EU in the referendum this June.
The bookmakers’ odds also show that the while Remain is expected to win it won’t be by a large majority. There are odds of 9/4 that 50% – 55% of the votes will be for Remain and 7/2 that just 45% to 50% will be for Remain.