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Bookies Start Taking Bets on Scottish Independence Referendum

Bookies Start Taking Bets on Scottish Independence Referendum

Just a few hours after Nicola Sturgeon announced that she was intending to seek permission from Westminster to hold a second Scottish independence vote the bookmakers started offering odds on the timing and the result.

Paddy Power started offering odds of 5/6 that the vote will be held in 2020 or later and put the chances of hit happening this year at 50/1. While Sturgeon has stated that she wants to hold it sometime between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2019, the bookies have put the chances of this at just 7/1.

However, William Hill is offering odds of 4/6 that it will happen before the end of 2020 and a 2/9 chance that it will happen before the end of 2025. Furthermore, Betfred and Ladbrokes are both offering 4/7 on it taking place before the end of 2020.

While analysts are on the whole sceptical of the Scots choosing independence, Paddy Power has put the chances at 2/5 and 13/8 against. Similarly, William Hill has put the odds of a Leave vote at 4/6 and a Remain vote at 11/10.

On Monday a spokesperson for Paddy Power said, “Despite Nicola Sturgeon’s calls this morning, we’re still odds-on that any Scottish Referendum won’t happen before 2020. Whenever it does come, it seems pretty likely that it’ll pass – though the early money from our punters is on it failing. Hardly the vote of confidence Sturgeon will have wanted.”

There is still a long way to go before the date of the referendum will become clear but punters clearly believe Theresa May when she says it will have to wait until after Brexit.

OCA News Editor

Jenny McKinnley is OCA’s financial correspondent. After spending years on the trading floor in both NY and London, she offers insight from the inside out on world financial news and events.

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